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Can 95 years of data tell us who will win this year’s Oscar for best picture?

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Can 95 years of data tell us who will win this year’s Oscar for best picture?

With celebrity slaps, movie mix-ups and viral selfies dominating the Academy Awards previously decade, you’d be forgiven for considering that the ceremony produces extra drama than the movies it was set as much as rejoice.

Nonetheless, this yr’s finest movie nominations have the potential to make the 2023 Oscars completely different (unexpected red-carpet-dramas however).

Tonight’s nominees comprise their justifiable share of so-called “Oscar bait” (lengthy, overly severe dramas by main movie studios, aiming to attraction to Academy voters), in addition to comedy, motion, sci-fi and, properly, Avatar 2. Sequels and remakes are on the up, whereas massive studios are shedding their former ironclad grip on the world’s most recognisable gong.

Right here the Guardian analyses historic information on Academy Award nominees and winners of the very best image award to search out out which movies could be on the point of making Oscar historical past.

However whereas this Oscars has the potential to trigger ripples, there are different traits that time in direction of the established order.

Winners have historically been directed by multi-awarded administrators (a shout out right here to The Fabelmans, which has seven nominations throughout all classes, and is directed by Steven Spielberg, one of the awarded film-makers).

And maybe most significantly, finest image winners are inclined to have extra movie awards than nominees – together with each Academy Awards and others reminiscent of Golden Globes or Baftas.

Based on the Web Film Database, the South Korean movie Parasite, which received finest image in 2020, received 308 awards throughout the board – greater than another finest image nominee. Final yr’s nominee The Energy of the Canine (which didn’t win) is second, with 271. In third place, with 262 wins to date, is that this yr’s favorite: Every little thing In all places All at As soon as.

However bear in mind, it’s not over till the envelope is opened … properly, except there’s a repeat of 2017.

Concerning the information

The info used for this evaluation comes from the Worldwide Film Database, TV Tropes, Wikipedia, Wikidata and The Guardian’s personal analysis.

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