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IMF forced to tear up UK recession forecast

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IMF forced to tear up UK recession forecast

The Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF) has admitted it was wrong to predict a UK recession this year because it upgraded its UK progress forecasts for the second time in as many months.

Britain is now anticipated to develop 0.4pc this yr, the IMF stated. That is in distinction to a 0.3pc contraction projected simply final month, which itself was an improve from an much more dour forecast made within the wake of October’s mini-budget.

The most recent improve means the UK is now not predicted to be the worst performing main financial system this yr, though the IMF warned that the nation’s long run progress prospects had been considerably under pre-financial disaster ranges.

The Fund stated the near-term improve was pushed by “higher-than-expected resilience” in demand and provide, amid a stronger jobs market and falling power prices.

The Fund stated in its annual analysis of the UK financial system: “Buoyed by resilient demand within the context of declining power costs, the UK financial system is anticipated to keep away from a recession and keep optimistic progress in 2023.”

Jeremy Hunt described the forecast as a “massive improve”, although the Chancellor recommended he would follow his plan of tax rises to satisfy a purpose to halve inflation this yr.

The Fund stated stronger progress meant the Financial institution of England might must keep raising interest rates from the current 4.5pc stage. Threadneedle Road has already lifted charges a dozen occasions in a bid to get a grip on stubbornly excessive inflation, which stood at 10.1pc in March.

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